The suite of courses I teach build on the observation that forecasts are ‘always wrong’ insofar as what actually happens routinely differs from earlier forecasts. These classes present methods to deal with this reality, and to guide students through ‘learning by doing’ in individual projects.
Risk and Decision Analysis
Focuses on design choices and decisions under uncertainty. Topics include identification and description of uncertainties using probability distributions; the calculation of commensurate measures of value, such as expected net present values; Monte Carlo simulation and risk analysis; and the use of decision analysis to explore alternative strategies and identify optimal initial choices. Presents practical examples from a variety of engineering systems.
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Covers theory and methods to identify, value, and implement flexibility in design, also known as “real options.” Topics include definition of uncertainties, simulation of performance for scenarios, screening models to identify desirable flexibility, and multidimensional economic evaluation. Students demonstrate proficiency through an extended application to a systems design of their choice.
Real Options for Product and System Design
Focuses on implementation of flexibility (real options) in the design of products and systems. Applies the methods presented in IDS.333: Students’ work culminates in a dynamic business plan for design and deployment of products, start-ups, ongoing management of operations, or policy plans. Students bring their own project concept, which they will analyze during the class.
Tools for Analysis: Design for Real Estate and Infrastructure Development
(Jointly taught with Prof. David Geltner)
Introduction to analytical tools to support design and decision-making in real estate,
infrastructure development, and investment. Particular focus on identifying and valuing sources of flexibility using “real options,” Monte-Carlo simulation, and other techniques from the field of engineering systems. Integrates economic and engineering perspectives, and is suitable for students with various backgrounds.
Planning and Design of Airport Systems
(Jointly taught with Prof. Amedeo Odoni)
Focuses on current practice, developing trends, and advanced concepts in airport design and planning. Considers economic, environmental, and other trade-offs related to airport location. Topics include: analysis of the effect of airline operations on airports; demand prediction; determination of airfield capacity; estimation of levels of congestion; terminal design; the role of airports in the aviation and transportation system; access problems; optimal configuration of air transport networks and implications for airport development; and economics, financing, and institutional aspects. Special attention to international practice and developments.
Planning and Design of Airport Systems – Executive Short Course
(Jointly with Prof. Amedeo Odoni and Dr. Peter Belobaba)
From time to time our team offers week-long tailored courses for practitioners worldwide. Recent engagements include Morocco (2019); Singapore (2018); Turkey (2017, 2016).
Excel Self-Study Modules
Practical Guide to Implementing Flexibility Analysis Using Microsoft Excel