Publications, Papers, Theses and Bibliographies

Papers organized by Categories, then by Dates.
A short description is provided below each title.
Last updated: February, 2014

Latest Book:  Flexibility in Engineering Design
Richard de Neufville and Stefan Scholtes,
MIT Press, 2011

METHODS


METHODS

Design Catalogues: An Efficient Search Approach for Improved Flexibility in Engineering Systems Design
M.-A.Cardin and R. de Neufville, 2013 Incose International Conference, Philadelphia.

Research in Engineering Design: the Role of Mathematical Theory and Empirical Evidence
D.Frey, P. Herder, Y. Wijnia, E. Subrahmanian, K. Katsikopoulos, R. de Neufville, K. Oye, and D. Clausing
Research in Engineering Design, 2i, 139-145, 2010

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Context

Governance Mechanisms for Infrastructure Public-Private Partnerships: Focus on India
A. Gupta, Master's Thesis, Technology and Policy Program, August 2011

Flexibility: The Secret to Transforming Risks into Opportunities -- Interview with S Scholtes
Business Digest, May 2007, No. 174

Interview discussing how the planning for flexibility in design and management can help deliver additional value in large-scale projects operating under uncertainty.

A Life-Cycle Flexibility Framework for Designing, Evaluating and Managing "Complex" Real Options: Case Studies in Urban Transportation and Aircraft Systems
Joshua McConnell, Doctoral Dissertation, MIT Engineering Systems Division, May 2007

Introduces the Life-Cycle Flexibility (LCF) framework for evaluating "complex" real options, which accounts for design, evaluation, and management/political phases of real options development and exercise. The LCF integrates systems dynamics and real options methods, and is applied to aircraft and transportation systems.

Maximizing Value from Large Projects: Implementing Flexibility in Public-Private Partnerships , Richard de Neufville and Stefan Scholtes,  Briefing Paper, May 2006

Describes how flexibility can be used to deal with future uncertainty in large-scale project design and operations. Presents four major processes that determine planning, design, and delivery of a flexible project.


Research Agenda for an Integrated approach to Infrastructure Planning, Design, and Management
R. John Hansman, Chris Magee, Richard de Neufville, Renee Robins and Daniel Roos
Special Issue on "Next Generation Infrastructures,"  International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Vol.3, Issue 2/3, pp.146-159, 2006.  
See also: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?


Presents a research agenda for systems design education that considers a wider, multi-domain, and multi-disciplinary approach. The agenda proposes comparative analyses across infrastructures and political structures, the creation of socio-technical models, methodological efforts, and testing and evaluation of the research with government and industry.


Uncertainty Management for Engineering Systems Planning and Design
Richard de Neufville et al, ESD Monograph, March 2004

Presents the case motivating flexibility and robustness in systems design as a way to manage uncertainty. Motivated by a gap in engineering education - designing to requirements - the paper defines the concept of flexibility and how it can be incorporated conceptually in upfront systems design, operations, and management.

Real Options: Dealing With Uncertainty In Systems Planning And Design
Richard de Neufville - presented at International Conference on "Technology Policy and Innovation", June, 2001; published in Special Issue, Integrated Assessment, Vol. 4, No.1, pp. 26-34, 2003.

Describes how real options and flexibility will radically change the design of engineering systems in the private and public sectors. Flexibility enables taking advantage of uncertainty and increasing value, by profiting on upside opportunities, and reducing exposure to downisde risk.


Architecting/Designing Engineering Systems Using Real Options
Richard de Neufville et al., ESD Symposium, Cambridge, MA May 2002

Suggests how to architect and value flexible engineering systems that can evolve optimally to meet new challenges and opportunities in a constantly changing environment. Presents how concepts from real options analysis in finance can guide flexible design choices.

The Flaw of Averages
Samuel Savage, San Jose Mercury News, Oct. 8 2000

Explains how investment decisions relying on historical averages can be distorted. Shows why more realistic investment decisions rely on expected value from explicit simulations of price or market value simulation through Monte Carlo simulations. The paper motivates explicit consideration of uncertainty in design rather than designing to deterministic forecasts.


Methodology
- Move up

Stochastic Dominance for Project Screening and Selection under Uncertainty
Adekunle Adeyemo, Ph.D. Dissertation, MIT Department of Chemical Engineering, Feb. 2013

Forest Fire Management in Portugal: Developing System Insights through Models of Social and Physical Dynamics
R. Collins, Master's Thesis, Technology and Policy Program, June 2012

System Architecture under Uncertainty: A Case Study on Automotive Battery System Design,
M. Renzi, Master's Thesis in Engineering and Management, May 2012


Quantitative Performance-based Evaluation of a Procedure for Flexible Design Concept Generation
Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Doctoral Dissertation, MIT Engineering Systems Division, Feb. 2011

Integrated Method for Assessing and Planning Uncertain Technology Investments
Joao Claro, Richard de Neufville, Samir Mikati, Raffaella Turatto and Nicola De Blasio
International Journal of Engineering Management and Economics, Vol.1, No.1,  pp. 3 - 30
, 2010.

The methodology focuses on corporate investments, as distinct from venture capital.  It thus addresses the problem of valueing new technology in terms of its synergies with the existing technological stock of the corporation, and its contribution to corporate strategy.

A Screening Model to Explore Planning Decisions in Automotive Manufacturing Systems Under Demand Uncertainty
Yingxia Yang, Doctoral Dissertation, MIT Engineering Systems Division, May 2009

Integrated Method to Create Optimal Dynamic Strategic Plans for Corporate Technology Start-ups
Samir Mikati, Master of Science Thesis, MIT Engineering Systems Division, May 2009

Exploring Flexible Strategies in Engineering Systems Using Screening Models:  Applications to Offshore Petroleum Projects
Jijun Lin, Doctoral Dissertation, MIT Engineering Systems Division, December 2008


Designing Capital-Intensive Systems with Architectural and Operational Flexibility Using a Screening Model
Jijun Lin, Olivier de Weck, Richard de Neufville, Bob Robinson, and David MacGowan
Complex 2009, 1st. International Conference on Complex Systems, Shanghai, Feb.


Engineering Systems Matrix: An Organizing Framework for Modeling Large-Scale Complex Systems (text)   (figures)
Jason Bartolomei, Daniel Hastings, Richard de Neufville, Donna Rhodes
Journal of Systems Engineering, Vol.15, No. 1, pp. 41-61, 2012

Qualitative Knowledge Construction for Engineering Systems:  Extending the Design Structure Matrix Methodology in Scope and Perspective
Jason Bartolomei, Doctoral Dissertation, MIT Engineering Systems Division, June, 2007

Introduction of the Engineering Systems Matrix (ESM), a new modeling framework  based on Design Structure Matrices to represent engineering systems on an end-to-end system-level basis, and the Qualitative Knowledge Construction (QKC) methodology, a Bayesian-type approach integrating qualitative and quantitative methods for coding engineering systems into an ESM.

Analysis and Applications of Design Structure Matrix, Domain Mapping Matrix, and Engineering System Matrix Framework
J. Bartolomei, M. Cokus, J. Dahlgren, R. de Neufville, R. Maldonado, and J. Wilds
June 2007 (Working Paper)

Describes and discusses applications of three different, related system-level modeling frameworks: Design Structure Matrix, Domain Mapping Matrix, and Engineering Systems Matrix.

Extracting Value from Uncertainty: A Methodology for Engineering Systems Design
Michel-Alexandre Cardin, William Nuttall, Richard de Neufville, and John Dalgren,
17th. Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), San Diego, June 2007.

Methodology considering flexibility in upfront systems design, based on Flexible Design Attributes from historical studies of engineering systems (GPS, B-52, B-58, NASA Inertial Upper Stage). Application to technology development in nuclear fusion for hydrogen production.

Facing Reality: Design and Management of Flexible Engineering Systems ,
Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy, MIT, May, 2007

A computationally efficient method to explore the design space and value flexible engineering systems. The method incorporates a One-Factor-At-a-Time (OFAT) algorithm based on statistical experiment design to explore the design space, and Monte Carlo simulation for valuation. It is applied to cases studies of parking garage and real estate development.

Proposed Methodology for Valueing Start-Up or Research Companies
Nicola De Blasio, Raffaella Turatto and Richard de Neufville, Nuova Energia, Milan, No. 2, pp. 34 -37,  2007
http://www.nuova-energia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=533&Itemid=113

Simple process to value the acquisition of start-ups or research companies by an energy company.

Extracting Value from Uncertainty: Proposed Methodology for Engineering Systems Design
Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Richard de Neufville and John Dahlgren
Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ, March 2007

Methodology considering flexibility in upfront systems design, based on Flexible Design Attributes from historical studies of engineering systems (GPS, B-52, B-58, NASA Inertial Upper Stage).

A Practical Method for Incorporating Real Options Analysis into US Federal Benefit-Cost Analysis Procedures
Darren Rivey, Master of Science Thesis, Systems Design and Management, MIT, January 2007

Identifies how real options thinking might complement current Benefit-Cost Analysis in use by the Office of Management and Budget in circular A-94. The proposed framework relies on Monte Carlo simulations in simple spreadsheet, complements existing practice, and should easily integrate with current tools, procedures, staff, and resources.

Real Options in Systems Design: A Methodological Compromise and its Implications , Konstantinos Kalligeros and Richard de Neufville, Real Options Conference, New York, June 2006.

A methodology based on simulations for valuing certain classes of engineering systems, with focus on design rather that proper economic valuation of options. The method sacrifices some technical rigor to be compatible with evaluation practice in engineering organizations. 

Platforms and Flexibility in Large-Scale Engineering Systems
Konstantinos Kalligeros, Doctoral Dissertation, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, May 2006

A framework incorporating two methods for 1) screening engineering systems for flexibility "in" systems, called Invariant Design Rule, which relies on standardization and Design Structure Matrix, and 2) valuing real options in an engineering context based on simulations. The framework is applied to a case in the oil platform development industry.

Defining Markets for New Materials -- Developing a Utility Methodology with Case Application
Richard de Neufville, Christophe Mangin, Frank Field and Joel Clark - Resources Policy, Vol. 21, No.3, pp.169-178,  September 1995

An engineering methodology to identify profitable market segments for use of new materials. The method has three parts: 1) measure of company preference for particular material use 2) market segment identification 3) measure of the premium market segments are willing to pay for a product made of new material. Method applied to a case study in the automobile industry.


Theory
- Move up

A Survey of State-of-the-Art Methodologies and a Framework for Identifying and Valuing Flexible Design Opportunities in Engineering Systems
Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Richard de Neufville, July 2008 (Working Paper)

The Effect of "Private"and "Public" Risks on Oilfield Asset Pricing: Empirical Insights into the Georgetown Real Options Debate
Gavin Kretzschmar and Peter Moles, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 18(2) pp 106-115, Spring 2006

The paper sheds light on the debate about the best way to apply real options (see papers below) with the findings of their extensive empirical analysis of UK oilfield expansion options. The bottom line is that size matters in the context of oilfields, presumably because it offers a reliable guide to the kind and size of risks associated with the project.

Real Options Analysis: Where are the Emperor's Clothes?
Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 17(2) pp 17-31, Spring 2005

This paper and the two below present a critical review and discussion of the current state of knowledge in terms of real options valuation methods. It focuses on the economic/financial perspective of real options analysis.

Real Options: Meeting the Georgetown Challenge
Thomas Copeland and Vladimir Antikarov, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 17(2) pp 32-51, Spring 2005

A Response to "Real Options: Meeting the Georgetown Challenge"
Adam Borison, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 17(2) pp 52-54, Spring 2005

Real Options Analysis: Where are the Emperor’s Clothes?
Adam Borison, Stanford University, Version presented at Real Options Conference, Washington, DC July 2003. http://www.realoptions.org/abstracts/abstracts03.html


Flexibility Valuation
- Move up

Implication of the Jensen’s Inequality for System Dynamic Simulations: Application to a Plug & Play Integrated Refinery Supply Chain Model

Implication of the Jensen's Inequality for System Dynamic Simulations: Application to a Plug and Play Integrated Refinery Supply Chain Model
Juan Esteban Montero, Master of Science Thesis, MIT System Design and Management Program, Dec. 2013

Enhancing the Value of Oilfield Development with Flexible Subsea Tiebacks
J. Lin, O. de Weck, R. de Neufville, and H. Yue
J. of Petroleum Science and Engineering


Integrated Method for Assessing and Planning Uncertain Technology Investments
Joao Claro, Richard de Neufville, Samir Mikati, Raffaella Turatto and Nicola De Blasio
International Journal of Engineering Management and Economics, Vol.1, No.1, 2010, pp. 3 - 30.


The methodology focuses on corporate investments, as distinct from venture capital.  It thus addresses the problem of valueing new technology in terms of its synergies with the existing technological stock of the corporation, and its contribution to corporate strategy.

Integrated Method to Create Optimal Dynamic Strategic Plans for Corporate Technology Start-ups
Samir Mikati, Master of Science Thesis, MIT Engineering Systems Division, May 2009


Hybrid Lattice and Decision Analysis of Real Options: Application to a Supply-Chain Strategy
Nestor Quispez-Asin, Master of Science Thesis, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, February 2008

Presentation of a hybrid valuation method for real options combining lattice and decision analyses. The new valuation method benefits from advantages and reduces drawbacks from both methods. It is applied to a case study in supply-chain management.

Design of Engineering Systems Under Uncertainty via Real Options and Heuristic Optimization
Rania Hassan and Richard de Neufville, Real Options Conference, New York, June 2006.

An approach based on heuristic optimization to design and value a flexible engineering system operating under uncertainty. The approach is applied to the development of an offshore oil pipeline network.

Real Options in Systems Design: A Methodological Compromise and its Implications , Konstantinos Kalligeros and Richard de Neufville, Real Options Conference, New York, June 2006.

A methodology based on simulations for valuing certain classes of engineering systems, with focus on design rather that proper economic valuation of options. The method sacrifices some technical rigor to be compatible with evaluation practice in engineering organizations.

Valuing Options by Spreadsheet: Parking Garage Case Example
Richard de Neufville, Stefan Scholtes and Tao Wang -- ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Vol.12, No.2. pp. 107-111, 2006
Spreadsheet for this analysis

Generally applicable demonstration of the Excel-based simulation method for determining the value of flexibility. The case study illustrates how flexibility in design can lead to major increases in Expected Net Present Value and return on investment, while reducing possible losses and increasing possible gains.

Latin American version of above:
Opciones reales en Hoja de Calculo: Caso de un edificio de parqueo
Version castellana con ayuda de Laura Escudero  (Feb 2008)
Opciones reales en Hoja de Cálculo:  Caso de un edificio de aparcamiento

Value-at-Risk Analysis for Real Options in Complex Engineered Systems
Rania Hassan, Richard de Neufville, Olivier de Weck, Daniel Hastings and D. McKinnon
Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 2005 IEEE International Conference on Large Scale Infrastructures, Hawaii, 10-12 October  in Volume 4, pp. 3697-3704, Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/ICSMC.2005.1571721

Demonstration of the simulation-based real options valuation method applied to a flexible satellite-fleet architecture.

Flexibility in Building Design:  A Real Options Approach and Valuation Methodology to Address Risk
Lara Greden, Doctoral Dissertation, Building Technology, MIT, April 2005

Develops an approach to flexible buildings operating under market rent and climate uncertainty. The research investigates two sources of flexibility in the building industry: 1) ability to change use of space, and 2) ability to switch from natural ventilation to mechanical cooling. It demonstrates the value added by flexible design using real options analysis.

Real Options Approach to Capacity Planning Under Uncertainty
Geetanjali Mittal, Master of Science Thesis, Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, February, 2004

Highlights the effectiveness of real options analysis in capacity planning decisions for engineering projects under uncertainty, in particular in planning flexible hydropower capacity.

Hybrid Real Options Valuation of Risky Product Development Projects
Richard de Neufville and James Neely - International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, Vol.1, No.1, pp.29-46, Jan. 2001

Presents a hybrid real options valuation method combining decision and options analysis. Illustrates application of the method to a portfolio of technological developments of a major automobile company.


Identification of Flexible Design Opportunities
- Move up


Designing Capital-Intensive Systems with Architectural and Operational Flexibility Using a Screening Model
Jijun Lin, Olivier de Weck, Richard de Neufville, Bob Robinson, and David MacGowan
Complex 2009, 1st. International Conference on Complex Systems, Shanghai, Feb.


A Methodology for Identifying Flexible Design Opportunities
Jennifer Wilds, Master of Science Thesis, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, September 2008

Identifying Real Options to Improve the Design of Engineering Systems
Richard de Neufville, Olivier de Weck, Jijun Lin and Stefan Scholtes
Chapter in "Real Options in Engineering Design, Operations and Management," H. Nembhard and Mehmet Aktan, eds., CRC Press, 2009.

Describes ongoing research focusing on improving the overall performance of technological projects through design of flexibility. Positions current research midway between standard engineering practice - which does not incorporate
systematically flexibility  in design - and financial real options - which does not deal with design issues. A case study in the oil industry is provided.

Engineering Systems Matrix: An Organizing Framework for Modeling Large-Scale Complex Systems (text)   (figures)
Jason Bartolomei, Daniel Hastings, Richard de Neufville, Donna Rhodes
Journal of Systems Engineering, 2011


Qualitative Knowledge Construction for Engineering Systems:  Extending the Design Structure Matrix Methodology in Scope and Perspective
Jason Bartolomei, Doctoral Dissertation, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, June, 2007

Introduction of the Engineering Systems Matrix (ESM), a new modeling framework  based on Design Structure Matrices to represent engineering systems on an end-to-end system-level basis, and the Qualitative Knowledge Construction methodology, a Bayesian-type approach integrating qualitative and quantitative methods for coding engineering systems into an ESM.

Analysis and Applications of Design Structure Matrix, Domain Mapping Matrix, and Engineering System Matrix Framework
J. Bartolomei, M. Cokus, J. Dahlgren, R. de Neufville, R. Maldonado, and J. Wilds
June 2007

Describes and discusses applications of three different, related system-level modeling frameworks: Design Structure Matrix, Domain Mapping Matrix, and Engineering Systems Matrix.

Identification of Real Options "In" Projects
Tao Wang and Richard de Neufville,  16th. Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) Orlando, July 2006.
Prize for Best Paper at INCOSE Conference

Provides an approach to identify sources of flexibility "in" engineering systems that are a priori undefined, complex, and interdependent. The method uses a low-fidelity screening model and simulations to identify flexibility "in" the system. The method is applied to a hydro power system development project in China.

Platform Identification Using Design Structure Matrices
Konstantinos Kalligeros, Olivier de Weck, Richard de Neufville and Adrrian Luckins
16th. Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) Orlando, July 2006.


Introduces a novel algorithm based on sensitivity Design Structure Matrix (sDSM) to identify qualitatively platform components among variants within a family of systems. Identifying platform components lead to identification of where flexibility should be inserted to switch between variants. A case example in the automotive industry is provided.

Screening for Real Options "in" Engineering Systems: A Step towards Flexible Weapons Development  
Jason Bartolomei, Richard de Neufville, Daniel Hastings and Donna Rhodes,
16th. Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) Orlando, July 2006.

Provides an end-to-end socio-technical representation of an engineering system based on Design Structure Matrix to screen for flexibility "in" the system. Review the literature on existing methodologies to represent engineering systems. Introduces application to a Miniature Air Vehicle used by the U.S. military.

Design of Engineering Systems Under Uncertainty via Real Options and Heuristic Optimization
Rania Hassan and Richard de Neufville, Real Options Conference, New York, June 2006.

An approach based on heuristic optimization to design and value a flexible engineering system operating under uncertainty. The approach is applied to the development of an offshore oil pipeline network.

Real Options in Systems Design: A Methodological Compromise and its Implications , Konstantinos Kalligeros and Richard de Neufville, Real Options Conference, New York, June 2006.

A methodology based on simulations for valuing certain classes of engineering systems, with focus on design rather that proper economic valuation of options. The method sacrifices some technical rigor to be compatible with evaluation practice in engineering organizations.

Platforms and Flexibility in Large-Scale Engineering Systems
Konstantinos Kalligeros, Doctoral Dissertation, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, May 2006

A framework incorporating two methods for 1) screening engineering systems for flexibility "in" systems, called Invariant Design Rule, which relies on standardization and Design Structure Matrix, and 2) valuing real options in an engineering context based on simulations. The framework is applied to a case in the oil platform development industry.

Identification of Real Options "In" Projects
Tao Wang and Richard de Neufville, Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER), Los Angeles, CA, April 2006
 

Real Options "In" Projects and Systems Design -- Identification of Options and Solutions for Path Dependency
Tao Wang, Doctoral Dissertation, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, May, 2005

Proposes a two-stage integrated process to identify and value options "in" engineering systems, The first stage comprises an optimization-based low-fidelity screening model to identify potential sources of flexibility. The second stage develops a path-dependent mixed-integer programming approach to value real options. 
It is  applied to a river basin and satellite communication systems.

Real Options "in" Projects
Tao Wang and Richard de Neufville, Real Options Conference, Paris, 2005

Discusses, compares, and contrast real options "on" project, related to managerial flexibility, vs. "in" projects, which require technical inputs from engineers and designers. Discusses the limitations of existing real options valuation methods when used in an engineering context. 

Building Real Options into Physical Systems with Stochastic Mixed-Integer Programming
Richard de Neufville and Tao Wang, 8th Annual International Conference on Real Options, Montreal, Canada, June 2004


Proposes a two-stage integrated process to identify and value options "in" engineering systems, The first stage comprises an optimization-based low-fidelity screening model to identify potential sources of flexibility. The second stage develops a path-dependent mixed-integer programming approach to value real options. It is  applied to a water resource planning problem.



Uncertainty Management  - Move up

Risk Management and Governance for PFI Project: Technology Policy Lessons from the Case of Japan
Takuji Matsumoto,
Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy, MIT, May 2012

Improving the Risk Identification Process for a Global Supply Chain
,  Amil Mody, Master's Thesis, MBA and Engineering Systems, Leaders in Global Operations Program, May 2012

Governance Mechanisms for Infrastructure Public-Private Partnerships: Focus on India, Arjun Gupta, Master's Thesis, MIT Technology and Policy Program, August 2010




APPLICATIONS
- Move up
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Aerospace  - Move up

The European Satellite Navigation Program: Policy Analysis and Recommendations for the Future,  Laura Escudero San Jose, Master's Thesis, MIT Technology and Policy Program, November 2010

A Life-Cycle Flexibility Framework for Designing, Evaluating and Managing "Complex" Real Options: Case Studies in Urban Transportation and Aircraft Systems
Joshua McConnell, Doctoral Dissertation, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, May 2007

Introduces the
Life-Cycle Flexibility (LCF) framework for evaluating "complex" real options, which accounts for design, evaluation, and management/political phases of real options development and exercise. The LCF integrates systems dynamics and real options methods, and is applied to aircraft and transportation systems.

Design of Engineering Systems Under Uncertainty via Real Options and Heuristic Optimization
Rania Hassan and Richard de Neufville, Real Options Conference, New York, June 2006.

An approach based on heuristic optimization to design and value a flexible engineering system operating under uncertainty. The approach is applied to the development of an offshore oil pipeline network.

Real Options "In" Projects and Systems Design -- Identification of Options and Solutions for Path Dependency
Tao Wang, Doctoral Dissertation, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, May, 2005

Proposes a two-stage integrated process to identify and value options "in" engineering systems, The first stage comprises an optimization-based low-fidelity screening model to identify potential sources of flexibility. The second stage develops a path-dependent mixed-integer programming approach to value real options. 
It is  applied to a river basin and satellite communication systems.

Value-at-Risk Analysis for Real Options in Complex Engineered Systems
Rania Hassan, Richard de Neufville, Olivier de Weck, Daniel Hastings and D. McKinnon
Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 2005 IEEE International Conference on Large Scale Infrastructures, Hawaii, 10-12 October  in Volume 4, pp. 3697-3704, Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/ICSMC.2005.1571721

Demonstration of the simulation-based real options valuation method applied to a flexible satellite-fleet architecture.

Staged Deployment of Communication Satellite Constellation in Low Earth Orbit
Olivier de Weck, Richard de Neufville and Matthieu Chaize
Jour. of Aerospace Computing, Information, and Communications, Vol. 1, No. 3, Mar., pp. 119-131, 2004

Application of real options analysis to the design of a reconfigurable satellite constellation, to be deployed in stages. The analysis shows that a flexible design provides economic benefits that increase with demand uncertainty level (journal version).

Enhancing the Economics of Communications Satellites via Orbital Reconfigurations and Staged Deployment

Olivier de Weck, Richard de Neufville and Matthieu Chaize
AIAA - 2003 - 6317, presented at AIAA Space Conference, Long Beach, CA, Sept. 2003

Application of real options analysis to the design of a reconfigurable satellite constellation, to be deployed in stages. The analysis shows that a flexible design provides economic benefits that increase with demand uncertainty level (proceedings version).


Airport Design - Move up

Building Airport Systems for the Next Generation
Richard de Neufville, The Bridge, Journal of the National Academy of Engineering, Special Issue on Transportation Infrastructure, Summer 2008, pp.41-46

Discusses current problems and issues with airport design throughout the world. Outlines the need to recognize uncertainty in airport design and operations, and the need to incorporate long-term strategic thinking and design for flexibility.

Using Design Flexibility and Real Options to Reduce Risk in Private Finance Initiatives: The Case of Japan
Dai Ohama, Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy, MIT, May 2008
Spreadsheets for Analysis:
Case of Tokyo Bay Aqua-line
Case of Tokyo/Haneda Airport Expansion

Presents a methodology exploiting flexibility in design of large-scale infrastructure projects in the context of Private Finance Initiative - a form of public-private partnership. The methodology helps managers handle uncertainty, model and evaluate the project, and reduce overall risk. It is applied to the Tokyo airport and Aqua-Line tunnel development projects.

Tackling Uncertainty in Airport Design: A Real Options Approach
Richard-Duane Chambers, Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy,  MIT, September 2007
Spreadsheets for running analyses for Airport Expansion Exercises:
Readme
Runway Default;   Runway;
Terminal Expansion Default

Terminal Expansion 123456789

Applies real options methods to value the financial benefits from flexible airport runway and terminal expansion designs. Models are available for preliminary evaluation of various airport development strategies, especially in an educational context. Development of a second major aiport outside Lisbon in Portugal provides the main case study.


Automotive - Move up

System Architecture Systems Under Uncertainty: A Case Study on Automotive Battery System Design
Matthew Renzi,
Master of Science Thesis, System Design and Management, MIT, May 2012

A Screening Model to Explore Planning Decisions in Automotive Manufacturing Systems Under Demand Uncertainty
Yingxia Yang, Doctoral Dissertation, MIT Engineering Systems Division, May 2009


Platform Identification Using Design Structure Matrices
Konstantinos Kalligeros, Olivier de Weck, Richard de Neufville and Adrrian Luckins
16th. Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) Orlando, July 2006.


Introduces a novel algorithm based on sensitivity Design Structure Matrix (sDSM) to identify qualitatively platform components among variants within a family of systems. Identifying platform components lead to identification of where flexibility should be inserted to switch between variants. A case example in the automotive industry is provided.

Hybrid Real Options Valuation of Risky Product Development Projects
Richard de Neufville and James Neely - International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, Vol.1, No.1, pp.29-46, Jan. 2001

Presents of a hybrid real options valuation method combining decision and options analysis. Illustrates application of the method to a portfolio of technological developments of a major automobile company.

Defining Markets for New Materials -- Developing a Utility Methodology with Case Application
Richard de Neufville, Christophe Mangin, Frank Field and Joel Clark - Resources Policy, Vol. 21, No.3, pp.169-178,  September 1995

An engineering methodology to identify profitable market segments for use of new materials. The method has three parts: 1) measure of company preference for particular material use 2) market segment identification 3) measure of the premium market segments are willing to pay for a product made of new material. The method is applied to a case study in the automobile industry.



Defense - Move up

Screening for Real Options "in" Engineering Systems: A Step towards Flexible Weapons Development  
Jason Bartolomei, Richard de Neufville, Daniel Hastings and Donna Rhodes,
16th. Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) Orlando, July 2006.

Provides an end-to-end socio-technical representation of an engineering system based on Design Structure Matrix to screen for flexibility "in" the system. Review the literature on existing methodologies to represent engineering systems. Introduces application to a Miniature Air Vehicle used by the U.S. military.



Energy - Move up

Quantifying the Value of Flexibility in Oil and Gas Projects: A Cases Study of Centralized vs. Decentralized LNG Production System,
M-A. Cardin, M. Bourani, R. de Neufville, W.S. Chong, R. Atapattu, X. Sheng, and K.S. Foo
Keppel Offshore Marine Technology Review, 2013.

Incorporating Endogenous Demand Dynamics into Long-Term Capacity Expansion Power System Models for Developing Countries
Rhonda Jordan, Doctoral Dissertation, MIT Engineering Systems Division, September 2013

Enhancing the Value of Oilfield Development with Flexible Subsea Tiebacks
J. Lin, O. de Weck, R. de Neufville, and H. Yue
J. of Petroleum Science and Engineering


Valuing Flexibility in Product Platforms: an Analytical Framework
M.Harper, Master of Science thesis,  Engineering and Management, M IT May 2010

Minimizing the Cost of Innovative Nuclear Technology Through Flexibility: The Case of a Demonstration Accelerator-Driven Subcritical Reactor Park
Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Steven Steer, William Nuttall, Geoffrey Parks. Leonardo Goncalves and Richard de Neufville
Electricity Policy Working Group, Working Paper, University of Cambridge, UK

The paper shows how flexibility in design can reduce the expected Levelised Cost of Generating Electricity (LCOE) -- in this about by about 12% -- for this form of innovative nuclear technology.

Integrated Method for Designing Valuable Flexibility in Oil Development Projects
Abisoye Babajide, Richard de Neufville and Michel-Alexandre Cardin
Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Journal of Projects, Facililties & Construction, Vol. 4, no. 2, June 2009.  http://www.spe.org/ejournals/jsp/journalapp.jsp?jid=EFC&pageType=Issue

Exploring Flexible Strategies in Engineering Systems Using Screening Models:  Applications to Offshore Petroleum Projects
Jijun Lin, Doctoral Dissertation, MIT Engineering Systems Division, December 2008

Designing Capital-Intensive Systems with Architectural and Operational Flexibility Using a Screening Model
Jijun Lin, Olivier de Weck, Richard de Neufville, Bob Robinson, and David MacGowan
Complex 2009, 1st. International Conference on Complex Systems, Shanghai, Feb.

Real Options for a Wind Farm in Wapakoneta, Ohio:  Incorporating Uncertainty into Economic Feasibility Studies for Community Wind
Katherine Dykes and Richard de Neufville, World Wind Energy Conference of 2008, Kingston, Ontario, Canada, June 24-26, 2008
Slides  [ZEW conference, Germany, Oct. 2008]

Uses a hybrid Monte Carlo - decision analysis method and lattice analysis to evaluate optimal decision-making for investment in a small community wind farm operating under uncertainty. The two options are a call, or phased project expansion, and the a put, or abandonment option. The paper contrasts and compares results obtained with the two analytical tools. 

Real Options Analysis as a Decision Tool in Oil Field Development ,
Abisoye Babajide, Master of Science Thesis, System Design and Management, MIT, February 2007

Applies decision analysis to value an option to expand production capacity as uncertainty unfolds in market price and oil reserves for an offshore oil development project. 

Proposed Methodology for Valueing Start-Up or Research Companies
Nicola De Blasio, Raffaella Turatto and Richard de Neufville, Nuova Energia, Milan, No. 2, pp. 34 -37,  2007
http://www.nuova-energia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=533&Itemid=113

Simple process to value the acquisition of start-ups or research companies by an energy company.

Design of Engineering Systems Under Uncertainty via Real Options and Heuristic Optimization
Rania Hassan and Richard de Neufville, Real Options Conference, New York, June 2006.

An approach based on heuristic optimization to design and value a flexible engineering system operating under uncertainty. The approach is applied to the development of an offshore oil pipeline network.

Platforms and Flexibility in Large-Scale Engineering Systems
Konstantinos Kalligeros, Doctoral Dissertation, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, May 2006

A framework incorporating two methods for 1) screening engineering systems for flexibility "in" systems, called Invariant Design Rule, which relies on standardization and Design Structure Matrix, and 2) valuing real options in an engineering context based on simulations. The framework is applied to a case in the oil platform development industry.

Nuclear Power: A Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?
Fabien Roques, William Nuttall, David Newbery, Richard de Neufville and Stephen Connors, Energy Journal, Number 4, Volume 27, 2006.

This paper and two below study the possibility, for merchant generators in a European liberalized electricity market, of keeping the option open between nuclear and gas technologies. Stochastic optimization are used to estimate the option value.

Marches Electriques: Securite Energetique et Diversification Technologique: Le Nucleaire comme Couverture face aux Risques de Prix du Gaz et du Carbone
Fabien Roques, William Nuttall, David Newbery, and Richard de Neufville,
La Revue de l'Energie, Number 568, Nov.-Dec., pp.373-385, 2005.

Nuclear Power:  A Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?
Fabien Roques, William Nuttall, David Newbery, and Richard de Neufville
Cambridge University, Electricity Policy Research Group Working paper EPRG 05/10, 2005

Real Options Approach to Capacity Planning Under Uncertainty
Geetanjali Mittal, Master of Science Thesis, Civil and Environmental Engineeringm, MIT, February, 2004

Highlights the effectiveness of real options analysis in capacity planning decisions for engineering projects under uncertainty, in particular in planning flexible hydropower capacity.


Healthcare - Move up

Real Options Analysis of Flexibility in a Hospital Emergency Department Expansion Project, A Systems Approach
Luis Maseda, Master of Science Thesis, System Design and Management, MIT, May 2008
Spreadsheet for Analysis

Identifies, characterizes, and quantifies the parameters to consider in emergency department expansion projects. Presents useful modeling techniques to drive investment decisions in flexibility with the goal of providing better service level to patient population. The case is inspired from a hospital in the Greater Boston area.

Flexibility in Hospital Infrastructure Design
Richard de Neufville, Yun S. Lee, and Stefan Scholtes
IEEE Conference on Instructure Systems, Rotterdam, 10-12 Nov., 2008

Demonstrates the value of flexibility in hospital design through case study of a major UK teaching hospital developed over the last 80 years. Lays out principles for designers to make economic case for flexible hospital infrastructure. Presents arguments for why Private Finance Initiative might inhibit design and development of flexible infrastructures in the UK.

Using Flexibility to Improve Value-for-Money in Hospital Inferastructure Investments
Richard de Neufville, Yun S. Lee and Stefan Scholtes
Symposium on Refining Health Care Infrastructure, 3-4 April 2008, Tanaka Business School, Imperial College London

A somewhat different version of the above paper, used for oral presentation.

Flexible Design in Public Private Partnerships: A PFI Case Study in the National Health Service
Yun Shin Lee, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, June 2007.  Master's Dissertation supervised by Prof. Stefan Scholtes

Proposes managerial ways of considering flexibility systematically into Private Finance Initiative contracts at the beginning of the project. The paper introduces OUF (Operational, Uncertainty, Flexibility) matrices to consider a sufficient number of scenarios for flexibility. The model is applied to a case study in National Health Service in the UK.


Management - Move up

Forest Fire Management in Portugal: Developing  Systems Insights through Models of Social and Physical Dynamics
Ross Collins,
Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy, MIT, May 2012

Using Design Flexibility and Real Options to Reduce Risk in Private Finance Initiatives: The Case of Japan
Dai Ohama, Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy, MIT, May 2008
Spreadsheets for Analysis:
Case of Tokyo Bay Aqua-line
Case of Tokyo/Haneda Airport Expansion

Presents a methodology exploiting flexibility in design of large-scale infrastructure projects in the context of Private Finance Initiative - a form of public-private partnership. The methodology helps managers handle uncertainty, model and evaluate the project, and reduce overall risk. It is applied to the Tokyo airport and Aqua-Line tunnel development projects.

Hybrid Lattice and Decision Analysis of Real Options: Application to a Supply-Chain Strategy
Nestor Quispez-Asin, Master of Science Thesis, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, February 2008

Presentation of a hybrid valuation method for real options combining lattice and decision analyses. The new valuation method benefits from advantages and reduces drawbacks from both methods. It is applied to a case study in supply-chain management.

Proposed Methodology for Valueing Start-Up or Research Companies
Nicola De Blasio, Raffaella Turatto and Richard de Neufville, Nuova Energia, Milan, No. 2, pp. 34 -37,  2007
http://www.nuova-energia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=533&Itemid=113

Simple process to value the acquisition of start-ups or research companies by an energy company.
 

A Practical Method for Incorporating Real Options Analysis into US Federal Benefit-Cost Analysis Procedures
Darren Rivey, Master of Science Thesis, System Design and Management, MIT, January 2007

Identifies how real options thinking might complement current Benefit-Cost Analysis in use by the Office of Management and Budget in circular A-94. The proposed framework relies on Monte Carlo simulations in simple spreadsheet, complements existing practice, and should easily integrate with current tools, procedures, staff, and resources.

Maximizing Value from Large Projects: Implementing Flexibility in Public-Private Partnerships , Richard de Neufville and Stefan Scholtes,  Briefing Paper, May 2006

Describes how flexibility can be used to deal with future uncertainty in large-scale project design and operations. Presents four major processes that determine planning, design, and delivery of a flexible project. 

An options view of designing capacity:  an introductory tutorial
Stefan Scholtes, 2004

Simple example in capacity planning for an infrastructure demonstrating economic benefits of flexibility.

Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual Sourcing as a Real Option
Sophie Pochard, Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy, MIT, August 2003

Focuses on how firms can prepare against disruption in their supply-chain and use real options thinking to value dual sourcing strategies. A model is developed to value the benefits of dual sourcing. It defines particular circumstances that justify a second supplier. 

Dynamic Strategic Planning for Technology Policy
Richard de Neufville - International Journal of Technology Management, Vol.19, No.3/4/5,  pp.225-245, 2000

Describes the principles of Dynamic Strategic Planning (DSP) for creating rational policies for large-scale engineering project development. Indicates specific methods for carrying out DSP principles, and applies them to a case study of low-emission policy for automobiles in the United States.

Technology Investment Advisor:  An Options-Based Approach to Technology Strategy
William Rouse, Charles Howard, William Carns and E. James Prendergast
Information - Knowledge - Systems Management 2 (2000) pp 63-81  IOS Press


Presents how R&D efforts can provide value as an option for achieving future business results, rather than be considered as low return investments due to discounting of distant benefits. Develops and illustrates the approach in terms of integrated models for options pricing, market/technology maturity, production, and learning scenarios.

A Dynamic Technology Strategy for Xerox to Respond to the Threat of High-Tech Commoditization
Richard de Neufville and Ali Pirnar - International Journal of Technology Management, Vol.18,  No.1/2, pp.73-92, 1999

Shows how Xerox can make strategic decisions to move into digital technology to respond to the threat of high-tech commoditization in copiers. Shows that agressive moves, although having higher variance and risk, provide higher expected outcomes under extreme commoditization.



Mining - Move up

A Process to Improve Expected Value of Mining Operations
Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Richard de Neufville, Vassilios Kazakidis, Mining Technology, Vol. 117, No. 2, pp. 65-70, 2008

An improved, computationally efficient appraisal process that recognizes the increased expected value of mining operations attributable to intelligent management response to changing operating conditions and market prices. Recognizes the value of flexibility in the exploitation of deposits, and thus leads to better selection of properties for finance and development.


Planning for Flexibility in Underground Mine Production Systems
Vassilios Kazakidis and M. Scoble, Mining Engineering, Amer. Inst. Min. and Metall. Pet. Eng., SME, 55(8), pp. 33-39. 2003.

Considers how flexibility can be evaluated and integrated into proactive mine planning using the concept of flexibility index. The flexibility index indicates how much value is added by a particular option compared to the NPV obtained with an inflexible design.


Product Design  Move up

System Architecture under Uncertainty: A Case Study on Automotive Battery System Design,
M. Renzi, Master's Thesis in Engineering and Management, May 2012

Valuing Flexibility in Product Platforms: an Analytical Framework
M.Harper, M IT Master's thesis in Engineering and Management, May 2010





Public Infrastructure - Move up

Governance Mechanisms for Infrastructure Public-Private Partnerships: Focus on India, Arjun Gupta, Master's Thesis, MIT Technology and Policy Program, August 2010

Real Options "In" Projects and Systems Design -- Identification of Options and Solutions for Path Dependency
Tao Wang, Doctoral Dissertation, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, May, 2005

Proposes a two-stage integrated process to identify and value options "in" engineering systems, The first stage comprises an optimization-based low-fidelity screening model to identify potential sources of flexibility. The second stage develops a path-dependent mixed-integer programming approach to value real options. 
It is  applied to a river basin and satellite communication systems.

Building Real Options into Physical Systems with Stochastic Mixed-Integer Programming
Richard de Neufville and Tao Wang, 8th Annual International Conference on Real Options, Montreal, Canada, June 2004


Proposes a two-stage integrated process to identify and value options "in" engineering systems, The first stage comprises an optimization-based low-fidelity screening model to identify potential sources of flexibility. The second stage develops a path-dependent mixed-integer programming approach to value real options. It is  applied to a water resource planning problem.

Analysis of Real Options in Hydropower Construction Projects: A Case Study in China
Tao Wang, MIT, August 2003

Applies real options analysis to value an investment deferral option on the Yalongjiang River Basin development project in China. Uncertainty in electricity price is modeled using Geometric Brownian. The paper recognizes that options analysis overcomes inadequacies of traditional NPV valuation. 

Valuing Flexibility in Infrastructure Developments: The Bogota Water Supply Expansion Plan
Natalia Ramirez, Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy, MIT, May 2002
Prize for Best Thesis in Technology Policy

Implements traditional NPV, decision analysis, and real options analysis to value an expansion option on the water supply system in Bogota, Colombia. Compares and contrasts the valuation results from each methods, and evaluates the techniques based on policy considerations such as practicality and ease of communication to decision-makers.


Real Estate - Move up

Beyond DCF Analysis in Real Estate Financial Modeling: Probabilistic Evaluation of Real Estate Ventures
Keith Leung, Master of Science Thesis, Program in Real Estate Development, MIT, February, 2014

Apply Options-thinking in Long Term Infrastructure Investment: the case of commercial real estate
Na Zhang,  Master of Science Thesis,  Technology and Policy, MIT, May 2010

Vertical phasing as a corporate real estate strategy and design option
Anthony Guma, Jason Pearson, Kate Wittels, Richard de Neufville, and David Geltner,
Journal of Corporate Real Estate, Vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 144-157, 2009.

Real Options in Action: Vertical Phasing in Commercial Real Estate Development,
Jason Pearson and Kate Wittels, MIT Masters in Real Estate Development, August 2008

A Real Options Analysis of a Vertically Expandible Real Estate Development,

Anthony Guma, MIT Masters in Real Estate Development, August 2008
Prize for Best Thesis in Real Estate Development
Spreadsheet for Analysis

A Streamlined Real Options Model for Real Estate Development
Baabak Barman and Kathryn Nash, MIT Masters in Real Estate Development, September 2007

Presents a hybrid real options valuation method based on Monte Carlo simulations and traditional lattice analysis to value flexible real estate projects. Presents interview results with experienced developers as to why traditional real options method is not prevalent in this industry. Applies hybrid method to value investment deferral option on a two-phase development project.

A Comparative Study of Real Options Valuation Methods:  Economics-Based Approach vs. Engineering-Based Approach
Shuichi Masunaga, MIT Masters in Real Estate Development, September 2007

Addresses the issue as to why traditional real options analysis is not prevalent in the real estate industry. Compares valuation results from traditional lattice-based and simulations-based real options analyses to the development of a flexible real estate project.

Towards a New Real Estate: Innovative Financing for a Better Built Environment
Matthew Lister, MIT Masters in Real Estate Development, September 2007

Describes how the real estate industry has evolved over the last century to develop places designed for compromise rather than enduring value. Posits that the industry is moving towards a New Real Estate that facilitates creation of places of enduring value, in particular through walkable mixed use urbanism. Examines the role of innovative financing concepts such as real options analysis in this evolving industry.

Facing Reality: Design and Management of Flexible Engineering Systems
Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy, MIT, May, 2007

A computationally efficient method to explore the design space and value flexible engineering systems. The method incorporates a One-Factor-At-a-Time algorithm based on statistical experiment design to explore the design space, and Monte Carlo simulation for valuation. It is applied to cases studies of parking garage and real estate development.

Flexibility in Building Design:  A Real Options Approach and Valuation Methodology to Address Risk
Lara Greden, Doctoral Dissertation, Building Technology, MIT, April 2005

Develops an approach to flexible buildings operating under market rent and climate uncertainty. The research investigates two sources of flexibility in the building industry: 1) ability to change use of space, and 2) ability to switch from natural ventilation to mechanical cooling. It demonstrates the value added by flexible design using real options analysis.

Management of Technology Investment Risk with Real Options-Based Design: A case study of an innovative building technology
Lara Greden, Richard de Neufville and Leon Glicksman
Real Options Conference, Paris, 2005

Demonstrates how embedding flexibiilty can avoid downside risks and benefit from upside opportunities
in building design. Applies simulation-based real options analysis to value naturally ventilated building design with option to install mechanical cooling depending on uncertain market value.  


Transportation - Move up

Measuring the Capacity of a Port System: A Case Study on a Southeast Asian Port
Jason Salminen, Master of Engineering in Logistics Thesis, June 2013

Value of Options in Airport Expansion
F. Morgado, S. Nagaralo, R. Macario, and R. de Neufville
European Regional Science Association, Barcelona, Spain, Sept 2011

Using Design Flexibility and Real Options to Reduce Risk in Private Finance Initiatives: The Case of Japan
Dai Ohama, Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy, MIT, May 2008
Spreadsheets for Analysis:
Case of Tokyo Bay Aqua-line
Case of Tokyo/Haneda Airport Expansion

Presents a methodology exploiting flexibility in design of large-scale infrastructure projects in the context of Private Finance Initiative - a form of public-private partnership. The methodology helps managers handle uncertainty, model and evaluate the project, and reduce overall risk. It is applied to the Tokyo airport and Aqua-Line tunnel development projects.

Using Real Options to Increase the Value of Intelligent Transportation Systems
Richard de Neufville, Kenichi Hodota, Joseph Sussman, and Stefan Scholtes
Transportation Research Record Vol. 2086, pp 40-47, DOI 19.3141/2086-05.

Applies real options analysis to value design flexibility in a particular type of intelligent transportation system: innovative crash avoidance systems that reduce accidents at highway intersections. Flexibility increases value for systems operating in
environments with rapidly changing technology and stakeholder needs.

Strategic Planning for Rail System Design -- An Application for Portuguese High-Speed Rail,
Boyana Petkova, University of Groningen, Master's Thesis in Industrial Engineering and Management, June 2007

Analyses whether flexibility should be incorporated into upcoming European and Portuguese high-speed railway system design. Dynamic Strategic Planning, of which real options analysis is a great part, is applied to the case study to evaluate financial benefits from flexibility.

A Life-Cycle Flexibility Framework for Designing, Evaluating and Managing "Complex" Real Options: Case Studies in Urban Transportation and Aircraft Systems ,  
Joshua McConnell,
Doctoral Dissertation, Engineering Systems Division, MIT, May 2007

Introduces the
Life-Cycle Flexibility (LCF) framework for evaluating "complex" real options, which accounts for design, evaluation, and management/political phases of real options development and exercise. The LCF integrates systems dynamics and real options methods, and is applied to aircraft and transportation systems.

R&D and Deployment of Intelligent Transportation Systems: A Case Example of the Intersection Collision Avoidance Systems
Kenichi Hodota, Master of Science Thesis, Transportation, MIT, May 2006

Examines the value of an ongoing R&D and deployment project to reduce crashes at street intersections under public-private partnership as an option for future development in Intelligent Transportation Systems. Decision analysis and hybrid real options analysis are used as valuation methodologies, under scenarios where user acceptance is required and when it is not. 

Valuing Innovative Technology R&D as a Real Option:  Application to Fuel Cell Vehicles
Maggie Tsui, Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy, MIT, September 2005

Values fuel cell R&D investment as a real option on General Motors's future light passenger vehicle fleet. Applies a 3-step valuation process involving Monte Carlo simulations, constrained linear programming, NPV analysis, and binomial lattice approximation to determine value option and optimal time span for exercise.

Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual Sourcing as a Real Option
Sophie Pochard, MIT, Master of Science Thesis, Technology and Policy, August 2003

Focuses on how firms can prepare against disruption in their supply-chain and use real options thinking to value dual sourcing strategies. A model is developed to value the benefits of dual sourcing. It defines particular circumstances that justify a second supplier.



Ship Design  - Move up

Flexibility in Early Stage Design of US Navy Ships: An Analysis of Options
Jonathan Page, MIT, Master of Science Thesis in Engineering and Management and Naval Engineer, June 2011


Water Resources - Move up

Flexible Design: An Innovative Approach for Planning Water Infrastructure Systems Under Uncertainty
Melanie Wong, MIT, Master of Science Thesis in Technology and Policy, June 2013

Desalination under Uncertainty: Understanding the role of Contractual Arrangements on the Adoption of Flexibility
Abdulla Almisnad,
MIT, Master of Science Thesis in Technology and Policy, February 2014



Design Process  - Move up

Design Catalogues: An Efficient Search Approach for Improved Flexibility in Engineering Systems Design
M.-A.Cardin and R. de Neufville, 2013 Incose International Conference, Philadelphia.


Quantitative Performance-based Evaluation of a Procedure for Flexible Design Concept Generation
Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Doctoral Dissertation, MIT Engineering Systems Division, Feb. 2011





BIBLIOGRAPHIES
- Move up
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Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Richard de Neufville (from working paper): "A Survey of State-of-the-Art Methodologies and a Framework for Identifying and Valuing Flexible Design Opportunities in Engineering Systems", MIT Engineering Systems Division, July 2008

Eun Suk Suh  (from his dissertation): "Flexible Product Platforms," MIT Engineering Systems Division, Sept. 2005

The above are recommended reference lists on flexibility and platform design.